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Helping-Advisors

by Russell Investments

Yield Spread

MARKET INDICATOR

Monthly Values (%): January '54 - June '17

Current
+/- 1 standard deviation of US Government Yield Spread (10 yr. - 3 mo.) figures fall into this range.
-2 -1 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 '54 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '17 1.41 Jan '54 1.47 Feb '54 1.29 Mar '54 1.44 Apr '54 1.69 May '54 1.74 Jun '54 1.47 Jul '54 1.34 Aug '54 1.40 Sep '54 1.45 Oct '54 1.49 Nov '54 1.50 Dec '54 1.54 Jan '55 1.30 Feb '55 1.28 Mar '55 1.19 Apr '55 1.37 May '55 1.32 Jun '55 1.20 Jul '55 .91 Aug '55 .82 Sep '55 .69 Oct '55 .45 Nov '55 .49 Dec '55 .55 Jan '56 .51 Feb '56 .71 Mar '56 .60 Apr '56 .45 May '56 .55 Jun '56 .86 Jul '56 .78 Aug '56 .49 Sep '56 .46 Oct '56 .52 Nov '56 .42 Dec '56 .28 Jan '57 .00 Feb '57 .48 Mar '57 .50 Apr '57 .35 May '57 .66 Jun '57 .61 Jul '57 .43 Aug '57 .46 Sep '57 .39 Oct '57 .47 Nov '57 .21 Dec '57 1.48 Jan '58 1.76 Feb '58 1.85 Mar '58 1.63 Apr '58 2.36 May '58 2.24 Jun '58 2.40 Jul '58 1.35 Aug '58 1.17 Sep '58 1.27 Oct '58 .93 Nov '58 1.24 Dec '58 1.45 Jan '59 1.17 Feb '59 1.22 Mar '59 1.33 Apr '59 1.31 May '59 1.21 Jun '59 1.43 Jul '59 .56 Aug '59 .70 Sep '59 .46 Oct '59 .09 Nov '59 .37 Dec '59 .74 Jan '60 .19 Feb '60 1.11 Mar '60 1.25 Apr '60 1.26 May '60 1.86 Jun '60 1.61 Jul '60 1.18 Aug '60 1.50 Sep '60 1.81 Oct '60 1.55 Nov '60 1.60 Dec '60 1.56 Jan '61 1.17 Feb '61 1.30 Mar '61 1.53 Apr '61 1.34 May '61 1.69 Jun '61 1.68 Jul '61 1.75 Aug '61 1.72 Sep '61 1.61 Oct '61 1.40 Nov '61 1.44 Dec '61 1.37 Jan '62 1.29 Feb '62 1.11 Mar '62 1.12 Apr '62 1.20 May '62 1.10 Jun '62 1.18 Jul '62 1.15 Aug '62 1.20 Sep '62 1.20 Oct '62 1.06 Nov '62 .93 Dec '62 .94 Jan '63 1.04 Feb '63 1.04 Mar '63 1.05 Apr '63 .96 May '63 1.01 Jun '63 .73 Jul '63 .63 Aug '63 .70 Sep '63 .67 Oct '63 .58 Nov '63 .63 Dec '63 .65 Jan '64 .58 Feb '64 .72 Mar '64 .77 Apr '64 .72 May '64 .68 Jun '64 .72 Jul '64 .71 Aug '64 .63 Sep '64 .61 Oct '64 .36 Nov '64 .39 Dec '64 .32 Jan '65 .23 Feb '65 .27 Mar '65 .30 Apr '65 .36 May '65 .39 Jun '65 .41 Jul '65 .37 Aug '65 .33 Sep '65 .35 Oct '65 .35 Nov '65 .16 Dec '65 .06 Jan '66 .38 Feb '66 .19 Mar '66 .14 Apr '66 .16 May '66 .39 Jun '66 .28 Jul '66 .30 Aug '66 -.32 Sep '66 -.25 Oct '66 -.04 Nov '66 -.17 Dec '66 .01 Jan '67 .18 Feb '67 .49 Mar '67 1.05 Apr '67 1.35 May '67 1.22 Jun '67 1.04 Jul '67 .89 Aug '67 .92 Sep '67 1.08 Oct '67 .79 Nov '67 .66 Dec '67 .66 Jan '68 .54 Feb '68 .59 Mar '68 .23 Apr '68 .18 May '68 .34 Jun '68 .22 Jul '68 .24 Aug '68 .33 Sep '68 .13 Oct '68 .26 Nov '68 -.09 Dec '68 .00 Jan '69 .07 Feb '69 .31 Mar '69 .33 Apr '69 .48 May '69 .44 Jun '69 -.40 Jul '69 -.12 Aug '69 .37 Sep '69 -.05 Oct '69 -.22 Nov '69 -.13 Dec '69 -.11 Jan '70 .05 Feb '70 .70 Mar '70 .89 Apr '70 1.02 May '70 1.19 Jun '70 1.00 Jul '70 1.16 Aug '70 1.45 Sep '70 1.49 Oct '70 1.45 Nov '70 1.65 Dec '70 1.94 Jan '71 2.74 Feb '71 1.89 Mar '71 2.15 Apr '71 2.04 May '71 1.48 Jun '71 1.54 Jul '71 1.84 Aug '71 1.40 Sep '71 1.56 Oct '71 1.59 Nov '71 2.21 Dec '71 2.74 Jan '72 2.58 Feb '72 2.29 Mar '72 2.51 Apr '72 2.24 May '72 2.09 Jun '72 2.32 Jul '72 1.87 Aug '72 1.99 Sep '72 1.65 Oct '72 1.40 Nov '72 1.27 Dec '72 .86 Jan '73 .79 Feb '73 .33 Mar '73 .47 Apr '73 .01 May '73 -.58 Jun '73 -.89 Jul '73 -1.41 Aug '73 -.08 Sep '73 -.65 Oct '73 -.61 Nov '73 -.56 Dec '73 -.48 Jan '74 -.45 Feb '74 -.87 Mar '74 -1.24 Apr '74 -.56 May '74 .30 Jun '74 .22 Jul '74 -.82 Aug '74 1.82 Sep '74 -.01 Oct '74 .17 Nov '74 .34 Dec '74 1.85 Jan '75 2.06 Feb '75 2.48 Mar '75 2.81 Apr '75 2.84 May '75 2.10 Jun '75 1.95 Jul '75 1.86 Aug '75 1.90 Sep '75 2.40 Oct '75 2.60 Nov '75 2.56 Dec '75 3.07 Jan '76 2.77 Feb '76 2.69 Mar '76 2.76 Apr '76 2.47 May '76 2.49 Jun '76 2.69 Jul '76 2.57 Aug '76 2.49 Sep '76 2.53 Oct '76 2.59 Nov '76 2.47 Dec '76 2.68 Jan '77 2.75 Feb '77 2.88 Mar '77 2.76 Apr '77 2.35 May '77 2.22 Jun '77 2.02 Jul '77 1.72 Aug '77 1.52 Sep '77 1.44 Oct '77 1.51 Nov '77 1.65 Dec '77 1.52 Jan '78 1.62 Feb '78 1.68 Mar '78 1.89 Apr '78 1.77 May '78 1.61 Jun '78 1.80 Jul '78 .85 Aug '78 .58 Sep '78 .21 Oct '78 -.15 Nov '78 -.11 Dec '78 -.34 Jan '79 -.28 Feb '79 -.33 Mar '79 -.21 Apr '79 -.51 May '79 -.14 Jun '79 -.17 Jul '79 -.57 Aug '79 -.68 Sep '79 -1.40 Oct '79 -1.11 Nov '79 -1.71 Dec '79 -.87 Jan '80 -1.29 Feb '80 -1.60 Mar '80 .37 Apr '80 2.50 May '80 2.21 Jun '80 2.14 Jul '80 1.59 Aug '80 .42 Sep '80 -.25 Oct '80 -1.76 Nov '80 -1.87 Dec '80 -1.91 Jan '81 -.79 Feb '81 .67 Mar '81 -.75 Apr '81 -1.60 May '81 -.42 Jun '81 -.20 Jul '81 -.11 Aug '81 1.50 Sep '81 1.88 Oct '81 2.76 Nov '81 2.90 Dec '81 1.62 Jan '82 1.59 Feb '82 .92 Mar '82 1.53 Apr '82 2.21 May '82 1.68 Jun '82 3.51 Jul '82 4.39 Aug '82 4.11 Sep '82 2.81 Oct '82 2.51 Nov '82 2.44 Dec '82 2.70 Jan '83 2.34 Feb '83 1.98 Mar '83 2.19 Apr '83 2.18 May '83 2.17 Jun '83 2.54 Jul '83 2.72 Aug '83 2.73 Sep '83 3.23 Oct '83 2.75 Nov '83 2.85 Dec '83 2.78 Jan '84 2.90 Feb '84 2.81 Mar '84 3.10 Apr '84 4.16 May '84 3.92 Jun '84 2.51 Jul '84 2.16 Aug '84 2.25 Sep '84 2.78 Oct '84 3.14 Nov '84 3.70 Dec '84 3.12 Jan '85 3.41 Feb '85 3.47 Mar '85 3.56 Apr '85 3.14 May '85 3.42 Jun '85 3.29 Jul '85 3.14 Aug '85 3.27 Sep '85 2.82 Oct '85 2.43 Nov '85 1.95 Dec '85 2.11 Jan '86 1.11 Feb '86 1.05 Mar '86 1.28 Apr '86 1.73 May '86 1.37 Jun '86 1.53 Jul '86 1.73 Aug '86 2.21 Sep '86 2.09 Oct '86 1.76 Nov '86 1.55 Dec '86 1.55 Jan '87 1.73 Feb '87 1.87 Mar '87 2.65 Apr '87 2.82 May '87 2.68 Jun '87 2.61 Jul '87 2.71 Aug '87 2.97 Sep '87 3.58 Oct '87 3.81 Nov '87 3.24 Dec '87 2.62 Jan '88 2.57 Feb '88 2.89 Mar '88 2.90 Apr '88 2.74 May '88 2.24 Jun '88 2.16 Jul '88 1.93 Aug '88 1.61 Sep '88 1.26 Oct '88 1.21 Nov '88 1.03 Dec '88 .58 Jan '89 .57 Feb '89 .37 Mar '89 .63 Apr '89 -.01 May '89 .08 Jun '89 .00 Jul '89 .36 Aug '89 .38 Sep '89 .13 Oct '89 .24 Nov '89 .38 Dec '89 .66 Jan '90 .73 Feb '90 .83 Mar '90 1.22 Apr '90 .84 May '90 .67 Jun '90 .85 Jul '90 1.45 Aug '90 1.66 Sep '90 1.52 Oct '90 1.23 Nov '90 1.62 Dec '90 1.83 Jan '91 1.96 Feb '91 2.30 Mar '91 2.50 Apr '91 2.55 May '91 2.70 Jun '91 2.63 Jul '91 2.52 Aug '91 2.37 Sep '91 2.65 Oct '91 3.06 Nov '91 2.85 Dec '91 3.48 Jan '92 3.35 Feb '92 3.49 Mar '92 3.87 Apr '92 3.60 May '92 3.52 Jun '92 3.42 Jul '92 3.45 Aug '92 3.66 Sep '92 3.82 Oct '92 3.66 Nov '92 3.60 Dec '92 3.47 Jan '93 3.07 Feb '93 3.13 Mar '93 3.12 Apr '93 3.08 May '93 2.74 Jun '93 2.77 Jul '93 2.44 Aug '93 2.48 Sep '93 2.39 Oct '93 2.66 Nov '93 2.79 Dec '93 2.69 Jan '94 2.79 Feb '94 3.28 Mar '94 3.17 Apr '94 3.01 May '94 3.18 Jun '94 2.84 Jul '94 2.62 Aug '94 2.94 Sep '94 2.77 Oct '94 2.35 Nov '94 2.31 Dec '94 1.77 Jan '95 1.46 Feb '95 1.50 Mar '95 1.37 Apr '95 .67 May '95 .77 Jun '95 1.02 Jul '95 .99 Aug '95 .93 Sep '95 .70 Oct '95 .44 Nov '95 .62 Dec '95 .68 Jan '96 1.24 Feb '96 1.33 Mar '96 1.64 Apr '96 1.81 May '96 1.68 Jun '96 1.62 Jul '96 1.80 Aug '96 1.80 Sep '96 1.33 Oct '96 1.05 Nov '96 1.35 Dec '96 1.49 Jan '97 1.46 Feb '97 1.71 Mar '97 1.58 Apr '97 1.85 May '97 1.45 Jun '97 .91 Jul '97 1.24 Aug '97 1.19 Sep '97 .76 Oct '97 .80 Nov '97 .52 Dec '97 .46 Jan '98 .45 Feb '98 .65 Mar '98 .81 Apr '98 .67 May '98 .47 Jun '98 .53 Jul '98 .27 Aug '98 .16 Sep '98 .39 Oct '98 .31 Nov '98 .28 Dec '98 .29 Jan '99 .73 Feb '99 .87 Mar '99 .93 Apr '99 1.11 May '99 1.16 Jun '99 1.29 Jul '99 1.14 Aug '99 1.15 Sep '99 1.05 Oct '99 1.02 Nov '99 1.27 Dec '99 1.14 Jan '00 .80 Feb '00 .30 Mar '00 .56 Apr '00 .81 May '00 .32 Jun '00 .01 Jul '00 -.39 Aug '00 -.25 Sep '00 -.43 Oct '00 -.58 Nov '00 -.62 Dec '00 .29 Jan '01 .18 Feb '01 .73 Mar '01 1.47 Apr '01 1.85 May '01 1.83 Jun '01 1.58 Jul '01 1.53 Aug '01 2.22 Sep '01 2.26 Oct '01 3.00 Nov '01 3.32 Dec '01 3.30 Jan '02 3.11 Feb '02 3.65 Mar '02 3.35 Apr '02 3.33 May '02 3.16 Jun '02 2.78 Jul '02 2.48 Aug '02 2.07 Sep '02 2.48 Oct '02 3.02 Nov '02 2.63 Dec '02 2.82 Jan '03 2.52 Feb '03 2.70 Mar '03 2.75 Apr '03 2.26 May '03 2.64 Jun '03 3.54 Jul '03 3.49 Aug '03 3.01 Sep '03 3.36 Oct '03 3.41 Nov '03 3.33 Dec '03 3.24 Jan '04 3.04 Feb '04 2.91 Mar '04 3.54 Apr '04 3.59 May '04 3.31 Jun '04 3.05 Jul '04 2.56 Aug '04 2.44 Sep '04 2.16 Oct '04 2.16 Nov '04 2.04 Dec '04 1.65 Jan '05 1.64 Feb '05 1.77 Mar '05 1.36 Apr '05 1.08 May '05 .88 Jun '05 .94 Jul '05 .58 Aug '05 .86 Sep '05 .67 Oct '05 .64 Nov '05 .41 Dec '05 .16 Jan '06 -.08 Feb '06 .24 Mar '06 .29 Apr '06 .25 May '06 .16 Jun '06 -.11 Jul '06 -.31 Aug '06 -.25 Sep '06 -.48 Oct '06 -.57 Nov '06 -.32 Dec '06 -.30 Jan '07 -.56 Feb '07 -.39 Mar '07 -.28 Apr '07 .17 May '07 .23 Jun '07 -.21 Jul '07 .42 Aug '07 .78 Sep '07 .55 Oct '07 .79 Nov '07 .92 Dec '07 1.65 Jan '08 1.67 Feb '08 2.04 Mar '08 2.34 Apr '08 2.18 May '08 2.10 Jun '08 2.28 Jul '08 2.10 Aug '08 2.92 Sep '08 3.59 Oct '08 2.88 Nov '08 1.97 Dec '08 2.61 Jan '09 2.77 Feb '09 2.46 Mar '09 2.98 Apr '09 3.32 May '09 3.33 Jun '09 3.29 Jul '09 3.25 Aug '09 3.18 Sep '09 3.33 Oct '09 3.14 Nov '09 3.77 Dec '09 3.53 Jan '10 3.47 Feb '10 3.68 Mar '10 3.50 Apr '10 3.14 May '10 2.77 Jun '10 2.76 Jul '10 2.34 Aug '10 2.36 Sep '10 2.49 Oct '10 2.63 Nov '10 3.17 Dec '10 3.23 Jan '11 3.28 Feb '11 3.36 Mar '11 3.25 Apr '11 3.01 May '11 3.15 Jun '11 2.70 Jul '11 2.21 Aug '11 1.90 Sep '11 2.13 Oct '11 2.07 Nov '11 1.87 Dec '11 1.74 Jan '12 1.89 Feb '12 2.14 Mar '12 1.83 Apr '12 1.50 May '12 1.56 Jun '12 1.37 Jul '12 1.47 Aug '12 1.54 Sep '12 1.57 Oct '12 1.54 Nov '12 1.71 Dec '12 1.92 Jan '13 1.78 Feb '13 1.79 Mar '13 1.63 Apr '13 2.10 May '13 2.45 Jun '13 2.55 Jul '13 2.77 Aug '13 2.61 Sep '13 2.53 Oct '13 2.69 Nov '13 2.97 Dec '13 2.63 Jan '14 2.59 Feb '14 2.68 Mar '14 2.62 Apr '14 2.44 May '14 2.51 Jun '14 2.54 Jul '14 2.32 Aug '14 2.47 Sep '14 2.33 Oct '14 2.15 Nov '14 2.12 Dec '14 1.63 Jan '15 1.98 Feb '15 1.89 Mar '15 2.03 Apr '15 2.12 May '15 2.34 Jun '15 2.11 Jul '15 2.22 Aug '15 2.04 Sep '15 2.07 Oct '15 2.03 Nov '15 2.10 Dec '15 1.60 Jan '16 1.42 Feb '16 1.56 Mar '16 1.62 Apr '16 1.56 May '16 1.22 Jun '16 1.19 Jul '16 1.25 Aug '16 1.32 Sep '16 1.53 Oct '16 1.90 Nov '16 1.94 Dec '16 1.94 Jan '17 1.78 Feb '17 1.64 Mar '17 1.48 Apr '17 1.24 May '17 1.28 Jun '17 1.28

12 month trend

'16 J A S O N D '17 J F M A M J
Date Value
Jul '16 1.19
Aug '16 1.25
Sept '16 1.32
Oct '16 1.53
Nov '16 1.90
Dec '16 1.94
Jan '17 1.94
Feb '17 1.78
Mar '17 1.64
Apr '17 1.48
May '17 1.24
Jun '17 1.28

Data represents historical month end values

What is it?

  • The spread between the yields of the 10 Year US Treasury Note and the 3 Month US Treasury Bill.

Why is it important?

  • The spread measures the market's outlook for future interest rates.

How do we interpret it?

  • An increase in the yield spread generally indicates that investors expect interest rates to increase. A decrease in the spread usually means the opposite.

Typical historical range

  • As of December 31, 2016, +/- 1 standard deviation* of historical month-end values have ranged from 0.33% to 2.67%.1
Footnotes

Data Source: Factset