Economic Dashboard

We've identified a few key economic and market indicators to help you assess the current economic health and trend.


Data as at 28 February 2017

  • MOST RECENT
  • 3-MO. trend
  • TYPICAL range
  • EXTREME
How do I read this chart?

Australian share market

Australian share market

Lowest recorded value occured on11/28/2008

Highest recorded value occured on02/26/2010

-39.95 44.70 Typical 22.13

90%of historicalAusSharesranged between-7.06and25.26.

As of02/28/2017,within typical.

Australian market volatility

Ratio:short to long term volatility

Lowest recorded value occured on02/20/2013

Highest recorded value occured on12/02/2008

0.33 2.77 Typical 0.67

90%of historicalAusVolatilityranged between0.54and1.38.

As of03/01/2017,within typical.

Global share market

Russell Global Development Index

Lowest recorded value occured on02/27/2009

Highest recorded value occured on05/31/2013

-10.56 8.62 Typical 1.45

90%of historicalGlobalSharesranged between-3.09and3.78.

As of02/28/2017,within typical.

Real cash rate

Real cash rate

Lowest recorded value occured on02/27/2009

Highest recorded value occured on09/29/2000

-1.48 4.58 Typical 0.47

90%of historicalRealCashRateranged between0.32and3.12.

As of02/28/2017,within typical.

▲MARKET INDICATORS


▼ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Inflation rate

Inflation rate

Lowest recorded value occured on09/30/2016

Highest recorded value occured on09/30/2008

1.31 5.09 Typical 1.31

90%of historicalAusCPIranged between2.00and3.00.

As of02/28/2017,within typical.

Unemployment rate

Unemployment rate

Lowest recorded value occured on02/29/2008

Highest recorded value occured on10/31/2001

3.99 7.17 Typical 5.66

90%of historicalAusUnemploymentranged between4.81and6.21.

As of01/31/2017,within typical.

Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence

Lowest recorded value occured on07/31/2008

Highest recorded value occured on05/31/2007

79.00 123.90 Typical 99.60

90%of historicalConsumerranged between94.92and113.46.

As of02/28/2017,within typical.

Business confidence

Business confidence

Lowest recorded value occured on02/27/2009

Highest recorded value occured on11/30/2009

-39.99 14.16 Typical -0.44

90%of historicalBusinessranged between-15.90and4.41.

As of11/30/2016,within typical.

GDP growth

GDP growth

Lowest recorded value occured on03/31/2000

Highest recorded value occured on09/28/2007

0.00 4.80 Typical 2.45

90%of historicalGDPranged between2.00and4.00.

As of12/31/2016,within typical.

How do I read this chart?

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This dashboard is intended as a tool to set context and perspective when evaluating the current state of the economy.

For each indicator, the horizontal bar shows four things.

  • A blue color band represents the typical range for this indicator. 90% of the historical values for the indicator fall in this range.

  • An orange marker shows the most recent value – the closer the marker is to the blue bar, the closer it is to historically typical conditions.

  • A grey area outside of the blue band which shows the range of more extreme conditions.

  • An arrow shows the most recent three-month trend indicating if it is moving toward or away from the typical range.

*Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

What is the purpose of the dashboard?

  • The dashboard is designed to be a tool to set context and perspective when evaluating the current state of the economy and markets. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of any economic or financial market. It is not intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance of any sort.
  • You can use this dashboard to show your clients current conditions based on these indicators compared to more historically typical conditions, and to show them which direction the market seems to be moving.

How should I interpret the chart?

  • In simple terms, the chart shows you the relationship of the most recent value to the typical historical range for each of the indicators.
  • The typical range bar shows the standard deviation (+/-1) of data over the past 10 years.
  • If the most recent value lies inside the blue band, that indicates more typical behaviour for that indicator. If it lies outside, that points to extreme behaviour.
  • The arrow on the current value shows you if the recent three-month trend is up or down from the previous three months.

What does each indicator show?

  • Australian share market – the rolling 12 months total return for S&P/ASX 200 in AUD terms.
  • Australian market volatility – ratio of rolling 30 day standard deviation to rolling 5 year standard deviation of daily returns for S&P/ASX 200, annualised.
  • Global share market – the rolling 12 months total return for the Russell Global Developed Index in AUD terms (unhedged).
  • Real cash rate – 90 day Bank Bill rate less core inflation rate (calculated monthly applying most recent quarterly data) to generate monthly real cash return.
  • Inflation rate – annualised core inflation rate, calculated from available ABS Consumer Price Index.
  • Unemployment rate – unemployment rate as provided by ABS Labour Force data, seasonally adjusted.
  • Consumer confidence – the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment, seasonally adjusted.
  • Business confidence – the monthly National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Survey, not seasonally adjusted.
  • GDP growth – Australia's current year on year non-farm GDP growth rate as provided in the most recent ABS National Accounts data.

How often is the dashboard updated?

  • The dashboard will be updated monthly, using the most current data available at the time.
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