Transcript
Today we're talking with Kirsten Bartok Tau, who's the co-founder and managing partner at New Vista Capital. Kirsten is widely recognized in in these areas that are often often somewhat disparate. So, Silicon Valley to DC, Wall Street versus Main Street, and also defense innovation connecting to private markets investing.
It's really interesting is it operates at the intersection of some of the most important impactful themes that are driving markets, driving geopolitics today. So, first of all, thank you Kirsten for for joining us. John, excited to be here with you. Looking forward to our conversation. How do you think about identifying companies, and maybe you could talk a little bit about the different thematic areas that you're focused on, and sort of distinguish trend recognition from seeing around the corner to what the
next opportunity might be? Mhm. And I think you can use we always develop there's there's space, there's aerospace, and then there's defense, which is a much kind of overarching one. Space is a really interesting because it's more commercial rather than defense, and you're really understanding the tech stack, and what it needs to be built next to get to the next level.
And I always like to explain where we are in space today. And in space it's about a a data communications lever. It's and it's it's it's if you're moving the terrestrial so what we have on the ground to celestial, and it has less um vulnerabilities. So, for example, you don't need to you won't be able to cut undersea cables.
Um it also has uh less latency. With that, however, we're still building that tech stack. As we built that all that fiber in the early 2000s, to some extent that's what we're doing in space. So, when we gather data in space, we take it, we send it down to Earth uh through a ground station, and then over back to be processed.
It's almost like akin to the dial-up era of where we are. Eventually, as we built the sensors, the technology, the satellites, the antennas, the processing capabilities in space, we're going to be taking that data that we get in space and whether it's voice communications, whether it's Earth observation connected, we're going to be processing that data immediately in space and then sending it to the user to be acted upon.
We are 10 to 15 years away from having a full-scale capability to do that. So, in that sense, you're really building out that tech stack that you can see, but it takes time to build, deploy, miniaturize, and then have the capacity to get up to space at an economical matter. So, space I find vastly different.
In the defense side, it's you have to stay very close to the leadership and that's both the military leadership, the the officers, as well as the political leadership because they both have significant impacts on the priorities that are set and where what is going to get funding. In the end, Congress funds everything line by line, but the people who are leading the defense mechanisms and the operators, and especially the the people who run acquisitions have the ability to prioritize, and those priorities and those things that are
prioritized do change over time and with administration. So, it's an important part to stay close to both the officers, the operators, the generals we speak of who are making those decisions, but also the politicals who change with administration who come in and out and they also have a huge impact on what is prioritized and what is going to be funded for the technologies.
Let's stay on the defense side for a little bit and I think there's there's obviously been quite a lot of a lot of change. You mentioned it wasn't obvious in 2019, but now we've got increased energy increased defense spending in in in Europe taking place. We've got changing priorities here in the US. I also think when people think of the defense sector, they think of the big listed companies, the defense primes.
And so, what and why do you think it's really powerful to be sort of an earlier stage investor in this space. What What do you miss if you're just investing via the majors instead of in in the current climate? I think of the majors you can look at it. You can see they act like monoliths. They're slow to react and change and build.
And to think as if you're an engineer in one of those is very difficult to get resources applied to something that is that you hear from your end customer in the Department of Defense that is needed. These startups have been incredible. We think of them as neo primes. So next generation primes. And we do expect them to be multi-capability and multi-product type of enterprises that are built up.
But they are able to move quickly because they are much closer to the customer and they're able to apply let's say R&D money quickly to getting something out. And you just don't I whether you're IBM or whether you're Lockheed or Northrop, no one moves that fast to get resources applied and then have the ability to go build a prototype for the Department of period of 3 months.
And that is a big reason why we're going to see the advent and the growth of these neo primes because they're able to do things build things on their are their own R&D dollars. And if they build something that is capable in what the government needs, then the government will buy it in scale and volume and fund that. And they can just move faster and quicker.
So this environment is going to be rapidly changing. I you know, we hear all the time from whether it be Height & Worth investors or in towns and foundations that it's really this access this exposure to what they see as kind of the next generation of technologies that they want access to. And it's hard right now because we really don't have any public companies that offer you this, you know, the the products that are going to be rapidly evolving in the future, let's say, of intelligence, of information, but also you kind of see the warfighter
and the warrior. Thanks, Karsten. As you're talking about the defense industrial base, um, you've talked about the primes and the the neo primes. Can you maybe clarify for the audience what we mean by that? Sure. There's historically been, um, a supply chain in which we've had a prime that is a prime contractor.
So, the person who maybe signs the contract with the government or even in the aerospace sector, we describe it as, let's say, a Boeing, the person who assembles the plane at the end. And then the subcontractors, which is, let's say, for an example, a Honeywell or the the suppliers that tier up to it used to be a spirit.
They're called the, um, the tier two to tier four supply chain. Today, we talk about So, the there's just six primes like Boeing, Northrop, uh, General Dynamics, um, L3 Harris, and and that is really consolidated from used to be a hundreds of primes in the earlier days, but it was really the peace dividend in which the Defense Department said, because it's got a last supper that we discussed where you had to consolidate to exist as the defense budget got smaller.
But it is those people that are the really the the people who sign the contracts between the Defense Department. As we look at the the the neo primes, those are really next generation primes. So, they're emerging tech companies that are come and they're building up to be large enough so that they are the prime contractor between the Department of War and the company on the other end.
So, as I mentioned Castellian earlier, they are a prime. They may have suppliers that work underneath them that provide them, let's say, um, propulsion or avionics or structures, uh, but they are the person doing the contracting putting everything together. And I think as the government thinks going forward, they really want more competitiveness at that prime layer and because that allows more innovation, better pricing, people are doing more R&D on their own budget.
And his for the last let's say 5 10 or 15 years we've worked in a way in which the government has said, I would like you to build X and I'll give you this amount of money, and they've given it to one provider to do so. And then if that person if that that prime that company would over budget or delayed or couldn't build it, the government was just stuck with taking that.
They now want more competitiveness in the situation. They want to have multiple people competing, multiple people saying I can build this. And so we're looking to build an environment in which we have many more primes competing for that business, but the neo prime is really described the next generation new technologies.
You've got SpaceX, you've got Palantir, which we call a space prime, you've got Anduril, Saronic maybe in shipbuilding, and it's we hope that in the next let's say 5 to 10 years you're going to have another 10 to 15 of the neo primes out there really supporting the sectors and providing more competition and capability.
While we're on that, I wonder if would you mind to the extent that you're you're able to share a couple of case studies or examples of the types of companies, the types of technologies that that you've invested in over the last couple of years that you're especially excited about? Sure. Um let me give you one which is uh Castellion, and they're working on a hypersonic missile which will allow us to um intercept something a missile that comes to us let's say from an adversary.
Um historically the primes have been able to make these, but if they cost 30 to 40 million dollars per missile, and they've only been able to make let's say 12 a year. Well, if you have 12 and it makes 30, there's a budget we can't burst through it. So, this is a group Castellion was founded by three SpaceX employees, and if you look who has been most successful being able to build things at scale and volume, and also when we see do things in advanced kind of manufacturing sort of way, I encourage everyone there's a beautiful
picture and if you're kind of a geek like I am that if you look at see the Raptor engine version one to Raptor two version three and it is just a glorious picture in engineering to see the advancement of how the old world used to do it with wires out there and how the new world can do it with advanced manufacturing internalized and that is what this team set up to do.
So they really took a hypersonic launcher and missile and they re-engineered it down to the basics. They thought how how can we do this? What should we vertically integrate? And how do we do this so we can make it at scale and volume? And today they're about to they've broken ground on their manufacturing.
They have they are far enough along with what we call the technology readiness scale that the Navy and the army have already decide have already started to integrate their capabilities into their launch platforms. So this is an example of where the US really needs to go to even keep up with our friends and allies but also our adversaries and being able to make things that cost less, that have the same capabilities but at scale and volume and really think about manufacturing in a different sort of way. So that's one. We've got another
company called Chariot Defense which is really as we think about going from a world where everything operates on base to where you're going to go out in small operations and you need the access to let's say batteries, energy to recharge things, communications. This is an energy platform high density high power that allows both mining companies so again or whether it's the Department of Defense and someone to operate away from base with all their comms, with directed energy, with recharging their capabilities in a low profile low
signature way. So again, inventing new ways to think about things and how do you get to market within the next three or four years in the time in which both as technology is evolving we're able to get out out and use it in the near term rather than the prior cycles, which were, let's say, 7 to 15. Oh, yeah, I might come back to that time horizon question in in a little bit.
Uh is there an example in in space that that you that you can think of as well? Like that that that you mentioned before is one where it's definitely dual use, but maybe leaning a little bit more commercial versus defense tech. Um would love to hear any examples in that world. We just did We've done a couple things in space.
Uh one was called Hubble Networks, which is actually using Bluetooth technology to allow things to connect two-way uh to space in a um high bandwidth, so you can actually have a lot of devices that go through. And that means that we'll be able to identify, you know, the AirTags you use? So, instead of having to connect to a cell tower, they'll be able to connect to a satellite in space.
You'll be able to find either your device or your phone, and it doesn't require hardware modification. So, that's one that's actually completely, you know, consumer to some extent, but you can see the Department of Defense was like, ""Oh, great, we can use this cuz we lose people and we lose things all the time."" So, a great example of kind of a more of a commercial technology.
Another one is lasers. You know, one of the things that we're working to do well in space is how do you transfer energy? And how do you do that in a um so that you your efficacy on the other end of the laser, you still have as much power, you don't lose it, and you don't overheat. So, we've invested in two companies recently, which both are working about the thermal problem, as well as working on next-generation uh P-cells to transfer that power.
That has huge importance in terms of moving your data through space in a laser kind of optical way, instead of using radio frequency technologies, which are um uh much more kind of they're more radio frequencies versus optical, which is uh much more capable, faster, and higher bandwidth. Also, transfers energy as well, so you have the ability to recharge something.
I love I I the idea of that next-generation AirTag. That's how we keep track of the kids when they're skiing. Um and it just doesn't It doesn't work very well at the moment. So, that would be Now, you talked a little bit about the the time horizon. So, a lot of these types of technology still do feel like they they might have quite a long payoff um path.
And so, can you maybe talk about how you think about what the optimal time horizon is? How do you avoid being too early um in some of these opportunities when you're when you're evaluating whether to write the check or not? And then I always show my age when I I go back again. There's so many analogies you can make to the internet time.
And And if you're If you were investing in the '99, 2000's like I was, you could think of Webvan or Kozmo.com. You know, grocery delivery. But at that point, we didn't have the middleware capable in the phone or the power, but you knew 20 years later as we hit COVID, everyone was doing grocery delivery at home.
Now, we do DoorDash. Everything comes, right? What we do today is is very is very similar. You have to understand the tech stack and where it is in the development to know um how far off that technology is to be widely implemented. Um space is always the easiest thing, but we talk about autonomy.
You know, we're still building autonomy on drones. We are still working about how you synchronize them and how you share data and then do that um without a human in the loop so it can be done autonomously. That is kind of a near term. There are other things that And space is a much easier one to look at like we don't do things like lunar mining or asteroid mining or lunar habitats.
One, you have to think about the TAM as an investor. And two, you have to think about the time horizon to to to realize. And in a fund, you have a 10-year life as we know. You've got the 5 years to invest and the 5 years in the back end. So, we are really disciplined at looking for things that are going to commercialize within, let's say, 2 to 4 years so that you have a product.
And then by it within years 4 to eight is really when you're scaling that technology. So we have the capability of of monetizing that investment because that is an obligation we have at the end of life. I often joke, I'll do some of the longer time horizon more crazy stuff on my own balance sheet, you know, you could do that as a family office, you could do that, but but they aren't necessarily appropriate when someone gives you 10-year money in a fund, right? So you really have to think about what is the time horizon in which they
can um they can go to market and do a a minimally viable product and then how long is it going to take to commercialize it? Um as we were talking earlier, I actually meant to to come back and ask you about how you think about leadership teams and management teams when you're evaluating an opportunity. And this might be a good way of sort of re-referencing one of the companies you mentioned earlier, but how do you go about thinking think about evaluating and deciding whether you got the right management team in place?
That's a great question and and I think as we go into this, we've learned over time maybe what we evaluated when we first came together would be slightly different as we've watched teams. So you had a question, is it is it pattern recognition or is it understanding kind of what the customer needs? And it really is a combination of both.
I think what we realized as a firm, we are experts in defense, we're experts in government, we understand the aerospace ecosystem, we can connect people. We found that it's much easier to teach entrepreneurs about defense or about aerospace than it is to teach someone who understands defense and aerospace about how a startup works or how to scale rapidly or what you need to pitch capital.
And that's was an interesting learning that I think we wouldn't have said we knew five or six years ago. Um but which is it makes sense. It's why second-time founders get higher valuations because there's so much less risk being dealt with they're doing. They've they've they've they've played the game before and they understand how to how to scale.
So, I I as we look back, we often times will um back founders who may have run a company or scaled something in a different industry, but now they want to take it and apply their capabilities to defense. Or we'll find um a founder who's you know, you or you look for a management team which has the combination of capabilities.
You'll be very someone who scaled, a really technical person cuz a lot of what we're doing is both hardware and software base, and then maybe has the third founder who understands how do you integrate and sell to the Department of Defense, and you bring all that together. It's rare you see that in one person, we occasionally do.
Um but these teams have to have a unique understanding and a little bit longer of a time horizon, and they all have to say, ""Okay, how do I scale? How do I pitch a vision? How do I make something that is big?"" Because especially as venture capital has kind of become a world of much larger dollars being put to work, your most venture capital is now and to to monetize and liquiditize, you're looking for big ideas.
So, do you have a founder with a large vision? And sometimes that can be building on one platform originally and then doing something like Anduril is doing, like adding on ancillary businesses or SpaceX, like buying vertical parts of the industry so that you're doing more of the value chain. But you've got to have someone who has a big vision for how to how to take over a product that is differentiated, and then someone within the organization who really understands, especially if it has the defense component, of how you how you
sell to that partner and how you break in and build trust over time. Cuz it really is an organization in which you have to build that trust and credibility over time. Okay, well, tha- thanks Carissa. Um to close us out, we we like to do uh a little a little game that we call the risk on risk off game.
So, it gives us a sense for your uh your investing and and and your personal risk appetite. And so, I have a couple of quick rapid-fire questions that I want to run by you and get your your take where you can just share you're either risk on or you're risk off on on this particular topic. The the first one is, uh, space tourism.
I'm risk on. I can't wait to see the curvature of the earth and experience that and float in space. I mean, um, as an investor, I'm not sure it's going to be a huge TAM or way to make money, but as a tourist, I can't wait to get the opportunity to do it. I'm with you. I I would love to do that. Um, the second one, uh, to use the term you used earlier, terrestrially, so traveling just on the earth, um, without any detailed plans.
I I've grown into it. You know, when we were younger you had to have everything organized, know where you're going. Now, you can book something last night, you can it it's great. You can make decisions and change things left and right. Like, I've embraced it. It's it's like part of the new world.
So, I have made less plans. I don't always know when I'm returning and I often don't know where I'm staying and that's half the fun. You know you're always going to be fine. Risk on. All right. Uh, the new Acela next-gen train to DC from New York. It's good. I only wish we could go as fast as our our friends and allies in Europe and Asia.
It's sad that that our tracks don't go faster, but it's a great experience and it's always nice to have the new work. So, I appreciate the Acela. I think it's risk risk on eventually, um, but Yes, we hope so, right? with with a bit of luck. We'd like to get there. Exactly. We didn't talk about this one earlier, but risk on or risk off, uh, data centers in space. I think it's it's been interesting how that has evolved over even the past months as we've been talking. I think everyone thinks that uh, the amount of power needed to generate a data center and the cost of space per kilogram is now going to balance out so that it is going to make sense to have data centers in space.
Now, are are they going to do the same things? You and I discussed earlier, John, about having the capability of processing data in space. So, what I think you'll have is our data centers in space will look like a line of satellites connected with large solar arrays and they will be doing processing. Um and there's two limitations right now.
It's it's not even the cost of when Starship is in place, which I think we all kind of see a path towards. The real questions now are how do you cool? Because how do you radiate the heat that comes from um generating uh the those chips? And then how do you also make them uh radiation hardened so that uh but that part is radiation hardening the chips is a more solvable problem than how do you get rid of the heat that they're emitting? But, you know, Elon was on a podcast recently where as he kind of put it, everything is solvable and achievable. So, we'll just kind of take that in a step. So, I think you're going to see a lot of people funding those opportunities going forward just because you'll want the processing capabilities in space. It It is a logical next step. Well, thank you, Kiersten. I really uh I really appreciate the idea of what a what makes a good investor, figuring out which problems exist and which problems are solvable.
I'm going to take that one away um for for me and my team here as well. So, I thank you for your time. Really appreciate your insights. It's been an honor to join you at Raskob Investments. Thank you for what you're doing and and I look forward to our next conversation. Thanks for having me. Thank you. Well, mate, that's our show for today.
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