U.S. Stock Market Returns During Recessions

May 08, 2023

Adam Field, FSA, EA

Adam Field, FSA, EA

Senior Asset Allocation Strategist

Evgenia Gvozdeva, Ph.D.

Evgenia Gvozdeva, Ph.D.

Managing Director, Head of Research

Eric Thaut, CFA, FRM

Eric Thaut, CFA, FRM

Director, Research & Development




Find other posts with these tags:

Subscribe to Russell Research




Connect and follow us

In this study, get the background, analysis and market timing of 31 recessions in the last 154 years: 1869-2022.


A study of 31 recessions in the last 150+ years: 1869-2022

Many investment strategists are forecasting that the U.S. economy could experience a recession in the next year or two. One of the main goals of this paper is to determine if stock market peaks and troughs coincide with peaks and troughs in the economy, as defined by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research).

In the paper you’ll find the background information on recessions with both negative and positive returns and a full analysis of market returns and rates over 150 years. Plus, see the impact of recessions on pension plan funded status.

U.S. Stock Market Returns During Recessions whitepaper

Request the research

Our proprietary research is available to our institutional clients, and many of these published papers are also available to other institutional investors. If you are not a Russell Investments client but an institutional investor, we invite you to request this research piece.

We only require your contact information on the request form below.

Your information is never shared with third parties. Read our Privacy Statement.

* Asterisks indicate required fields.



class="elq-item-input" name="address1" id="fe28033">

Subscribe to Russell Research




Connect and follow us


The information, analyses and opinions set forth herein are intended to serve as general information only and should not be relied upon by any individual or entity as advice or recommendations specific to that individual entity. Anyone using this material should consult with their own attorney, accountant, financial or tax adviser or consultants on whom they rely for investment advice specific to their own circumstances.

Products and services described on this website are intended for United States residents only. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.

Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.

Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates Management, L.P., with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners, L.P. Certain of Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.

Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the "FTSE RUSSELL" brand.

© Russell Investments Group, LLC. 1995-2025. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an "as is" basis without warranty.