2019 Global Market Outlook:
The late-late cycle show

U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy and Brexit imply 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. Our models indicate the U.S. recession danger zone is 2020, which gives equity markets some upside. But late-cycle risks are rising.



Market Insights

The Fed could still hike rates again this year. Here's why.

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of today’s policy meeting, once again emphasizing a patient approach to monetary policy in the months ahead.
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4 potential outcomes for Brexit: Probabilities and market impact

We see four main ways the Brexit saga could play out. Here are the potential market impacts of each one.
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International Bonds Q&A

In this short Q&A James Mitchell provides the latest insights from the Global bond markets and shares Russell Investments current positioning in the face of changing market conditions.
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January FOMC meeting: A pause, but (probably) not the end of the tightening cycle

The Fed announced a pause in interest-rate increases today, stressing it will wait and see how the economy fares as the year unfolds before weighing future rate adjustments.
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Top 5 investment themes to watch for 2019

How might 2019 shape up across the investment landscape? Here’s our take on the key issues to pay attention to. Topics: Market insights
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To fear or not to fear the yield curve

Does the U.S. Treasury yield curve always foretell a recession?
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Excellent adventure or bogus journey? How the next recession may unfold

Markets are struggling. Global growth is slowing. And as attention increasingly turns to the possibility of a recession, it's time to stop pondering when an economic slump will set in, and focus instead on what it may entail.
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Bah humbug: U.S. markets tumble to yearly lows after Fed guidance projects more rate hikes for 2019

The Fed increased borrowing costs today for the fourth time this year. Could the central bank pause its quarterly rate-hiking cycle in 2019?
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2019 Global Market Outlook: The late-late cycle show

U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy's budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018's volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.
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