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2018 Global Market Outlook - Q3 update: Trade-war tightrope

The two key global market trends of early 2018 - U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar bounce - have probably run their course.

 

Features

Market Insights


Global Bonds Q&A

6/07/2018
James Mitchell, senior portfolio manager, global fixed income answers frequently asked questions from investors on the outlook of the Global Bond market and how our fund is positioned.
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2018 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update: Trade war tightrope

29/06/2018
The two key global market trends of early 2018—U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar (USD) bounce—have probably run their course. Be alert for an escalation in the trade-war issue, and keep an eye on the yield curve for a U.S. recession warning, although this seems unlikely before late 2019.
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Q2 Fixed Income Survey - the US growth domino effect

13/06/2018
Throughout the year we ask leading bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months. In Q2 2018, we’ve put the spotlight on U.S. rates and inflation expectations, credit markets and casualties from rising U.S. interest rates.
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Adam Smears

Q2 2018 Global Fixed Income Survey: Key findings and conclusions

13/06/2018
Throughout the year we ask leading bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months. This quarter’s survey included 62 responses from managers with specialisms ranging across eight fixed income sectors.
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Adam Smears

Are recession risks increasing in the U.S.?

6/06/2018
This is now the second-longest U.S. economic expansion ever1. We always knew it was going to be a long road to recovery—the severity of the Great Financial Crisis and the mediocrity of the subsequent growth trajectory meant a long and winding road back to normal activity levels. But by most measures the U.S. economy is now back to normal. And we are starting to see a few signs of late-cycle imbalances that show an economy on the cusp of overheating. In that regard, it’s logical for us to start asking about when the next recession might occur and the implications of that for multi-asset investment strategies.
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It’s not just the tweets. Some things are different.

31/05/2018
This time is different.

Really.

I’m fully aware that the above phrase constitutes the four most dangerous words in our business. And, truth be told, on first glance, it may seem that today’s late-cycle bull market is no different from any others in recent history.
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11 months to go: Why we expect a soft Brexit

24/05/2018
With less than a year to go until the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, we think that negotiations are heading toward a soft Brexit. The guiding principles behind our focus are simply Prime Minister Theresa May’s constraints and preferences.
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Should I stay or Should I go?

24/05/2018
The S&P 500® Index started the year with a bang, rising 5.6% for the largest January gain in 20 years1. An old market saying is: "So goes January, so goes the year." In the past 50 years, there have been nine other instances of January gains greater than 5%. In eight of those years, the calendar year gains averaged 26%2. The exception was 1987, and we all know what happened that year.
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What’s behind the recent commodity rally?

2/05/2018
Commodities have been in a positive trend since mid-June of last year, when oil began moving higher from the low $40s1. After a period of consolidation in February and March, commodities have seen some strong price advances, particularly in energy and metals, so we felt that this was a good time to outline our thoughts about near-term and intermediate-term prices.
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