Max Stainton

Investment Strategy Analyst


2019 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update

June 2019
China stimulus, global central bank easing and a U.S.-China trade-war ceasefire could set the scene for a rebound in the global economy later in the year. However, the inversion of the U.S. yield curve and the downtrend in business confidence indicators keep us cautious at mid-year.

2019 Global Market Outlook – Q2 update

March 2019
Markets are caught between incoming data that point to slower global growth and forward-looking factors that suggest improvement later in the year. With the pause in U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, we expect modest recovery in global cycle conditions.

2019 Global Market Outlook

December 2018
U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy’s budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.

2018 Global Market Outlook — Q4 update

September 2018
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) is settling into a quarterly tightening routine that could see the federal funds rate rise above 3%. Even so, the upside for the U.S. dollar looks limited given its expensive valuation and crowded long positions. We believe a pause in the dollar uptrend should bring respite to beleaguered emerging markets.
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