Shailesh Kshatriya

DIRECTOR OF CANADIAN STRATEGIES


2019 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update

June 2019
China stimulus, global central bank easing and a U.S.-China trade-war ceasefire could set the scene for a rebound in the global economy later in the year. However, the inversion of the U.S. yield curve and the downtrend in business confidence indicators keep us cautious at mid-year.

2019 Global Market Outlook – Q2 update

March 2019
Markets are caught between incoming data that point to slower global growth and forward-looking factors that suggest improvement later in the year. With the pause in U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, we expect modest recovery in global cycle conditions.

2019 Global Market Outlook

December 2018
U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy’s budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.

2018 Global Market Outlook — Q3 update

June 2018
The two key global market trends of early 2018 - U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar bounce - have probably run their course. Be alert for an escalation in the trade-war issue, and keep an eye on the yield curve for a U.S. recession warning, although a recession seems unlikely before late 2019.

2018 Global Market Outlook — Report

December 2017
Our central view is that equity markets can push higher before facing headwinds later in 2018 as markets factor in rising risks of a 2019 recession. Running with the bulls can be dangerous. It’s easy to get swept up in the elation of the crowd and underestimate the risks.

Global Market Outlook — Q4 Update Report

September 2017
We’re in a late-cycle, momentum-driven market, where valuation is at an extreme. Momentum can drive markets beyond fundamentals for an extended period. No investment process is going to pick the peak in the cycle, but we’d lean out as the risks increase.

Global Market Outlook — Q3 Update Report

June 2017
We’re in a late-cycle, momentum-driven market, where valuation is at an extreme. Momentum can drive markets beyond fundamentals for an extended period. No investment process is going to pick the peak in the cycle, but we’d lean out as the risks increase.

2017 Global Market Outlook - The new abnormal.

December 2016
Our global team of investment strategists believes Trumponomics and Brexit point to an investing rollercoaster in 2017. Learn more about our near-term and long-term views for the year ahead and download now.
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