Paul Eitelman

Paul Eitelman

Director, Senior Investment Strategist


Key investment issues in 2020

January 2020
Read this brief paper to learn what we’re doing to manage our clients’ portfolios using a cycle, value, and sentiment framework.

2019 Mid-year check-in

July 2019
Read this brief paper to learn what we’re doing to manage our clients’ portfolios using a cycle, value, and sentiment framework.

2019 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update

June 2019
China stimulus, global central bank easing and a U.S.-China trade-war ceasefire could set the scene for a rebound in the global economy later in the year. However, the inversion of the U.S. yield curve and the downtrend in business confidence indicators keep us cautious at mid-year.

2019 Global Market Outlook – Q2 update

March 2019
Markets are caught between incoming data that point to slower global growth and forward-looking factors that suggest improvement later in the year. With the pause in U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, we expect modest recovery in global cycle conditions.

Key investment issues in 2019: How we’re managing our clients’ portfolios

January 2019
Read this brief paper to learn what we’re doing to manage our clients’ portfolios using a cycle, value, and sentiment framework.

2019 Global Market Outlook

December 2018
U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy’s budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.

2018 Global Market Outlook — Q4 update

September 2018
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) is settling into a quarterly tightening routine that could see the federal funds rate rise above 3%. Even so, the upside for the U.S. dollar looks limited given its expensive valuation and crowded long positions. We believe a pause in the dollar uptrend should bring respite to beleaguered emerging markets.

2018 Global Market Outlook — Q3 update

June 2018
The two key global market trends of early 2018 - U.S. growth leadership and the U.S. dollar bounce - have probably run their course. Be alert for an escalation in the trade-war issue, and keep an eye on the yield curve for a U.S. recession warning, although a recession seems unlikely before late 2019.

2018 Global Market Outlook

December 2017
Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben and Paul Eitelman, senior investment strategist, highlight key themes from our 2018 Global Market Outlook, including fading geopolitical uncertainties and the likely continuation of global economic growth. They believe that equity markets may push higher over the first half of 2018, before facing headwinds later in the year as the rising risks of a 2019 recession are factored in.

2018 Global Market Outlook — Report

December 2017
Our central view is that equity markets can push higher before facing headwinds later in 2018 as markets factor in rising risks of a 2019 recession. Running with the bulls can be dangerous. It’s easy to get swept up in the elation of the crowd and underestimate the risks.

Global Market Outlook — Q4 Update Report

September 2017
We’re in a late-cycle, momentum-driven market, where valuation is at an extreme. Momentum can drive markets beyond fundamentals for an extended period. No investment process is going to pick the peak in the cycle, but we’d lean out as the risks increase.

Global Market Outlook – Q3 Update

June 2017
Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben and Paul Eitelman, senior investment strategist, highlight key themes from the third quarter update, including a word of caution for investors in mid-2017’s late-cycle, momentum-driven market. Their analysis of current market conditions has them leaning out of the U.S. rally and buying the next dip or potentially better opportunities outside the U.S. market.

Global Market Outlook — Q3 Update Report

June 2017
We’re in a late-cycle, momentum-driven market, where valuation is at an extreme. Momentum can drive markets beyond fundamentals for an extended period. No investment process is going to pick the peak in the cycle, but we’d lean out as the risks increase.

2017 Global Market Outlook - The new abnormal.

December 2016
Our global team of investment strategists believes Trumponomics and Brexit point to an investing rollercoaster in 2017. Learn more about our near-term and long-term views for the year ahead and download now.

2017 Global Market Outlook - The new abnormal

December 2016
What’s ahead for investors in 2017? In this video Erik Ristuben and Paul Eitelman provide an overview of our latest Global Market Outlook.

Global Market Outlook – Q3 Update

July 2016
Investment Strategist, Paul Eitelman, highlights key themes from the third quarter update, including the potential impacts of brexit and lackluster investment outlook for the remainder of 2016.
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