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Market Insights

Hello and welcome to the market week in review for the week ending August 28th, 2026. My name is Olga Bespalov and I'm a portfolio manager at Boston Investment. I thought I would start this week in Europe where the economic data offered some tentative signs of improvement. Although the picture remains uneven across the region. Germany provided the clearest evidence of stabilization. Business confidence improved to its strongest level in roughly a year and companies reported a better assessment of both current conditions and the outlook. Manufacturing sentiment also became somewhat more constructive and consumer confidence showed some improvement as well. But that strength was not broad-based across Europe. Consumer confidence in France remains subdued while UK retail activity weakened further. Taken together, the data suggests that this is probably not yet a synchronized European recovery. Instead, we're seeing greater differentiation across countries and sectors. From an investment perspective, that reinforces the importance of looking beneath the regional headline and understanding where growth and earnings momentum are actually improving. Turning to the US, the economic data this week were broadly consistent with the pattern we have been discussing for quite some time. Growth has moderated from earlier in the year but the economy continues to expand while unemployment claims remain low and the labor market continues to provide an important source of resilience. So the broader US macro story did not change materially this week. The more distinctive development came from the corporate sector where Nvidia's latest results provided another indication of just how large the AI investment cycle has become. Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of just over 96 billion, up 106% from a year ago. Data center revenue reached 89 billion, an increase of 117% year-over-year. And looking ahead, the company guided to approximately 108 billion of revenue next quarter, despite assuming no data-centric compute revenue from China. These are extraordinary numbers, and they reinforce the continued strength of demand for AI infrastructure. But at the same time, the investment debate is beginning to shift. The question is increasingly less about whether companies are willing to spend on AI. Clearly, that spending remains exceptionally strong. The more important question is whether that level of can ultimately translate into sufficient productivity gains, earnings growth, and returns on invested capital. That matters because expectations are already quite high across parts of the technology sector. As more capital is deployed, the hurdle for companies to demonstrate meaningful economic returns also rises. What makes the Nvidia results particularly interesting is that we're beginning to see the same AI investment cycle show up in the broader macroeconomic data. The US goods trade deficit widened meaningfully in July, driven in part by a sharp increase in imports. And within those imports, capital goods were particularly strong. Now, that is a broad category, so it would be a stretch to attribute all of that increase to AI, but it does include computers, semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, and other components that are central to the current data center buildout. Recent GDP data tells us a similar story with continued strength in business investment in equipment, intellectual property, and information processing technology. So, one of the more interesting takeaways from this week is that AI is increasingly becoming more than an equity market or technology sector story. The scale of the infrastructure buildout is now large enough to influence capital spending, trade flows, and even composition of US economic growth. Putting it all together, I I two themes from this week. First, Europe is showing some tentative improvement, but the recovery remains uneven with Germany looking somewhat better while other parts of the region remain softer. And second, AI-related investment remains exceptionally strong. Nvidia's results provide very direct evidence of that demand, while the trade and investment data suggests that macroeconomic footprint of the AI build-out is becoming increasingly significant. For investors, that means that the next phase of the AI story may be less about the amount of capital being spent, and increasingly about monetization, productivity, and returns on that capital. The spending cycle remains an important source of economic activity and earnings growth, but it also raises the hurdle for companies to demonstrate that those investments can ultimately generate durable returns. That's all we have for this week. Thanks for listening, and hope to see you again next time. Thank you. >> Hi, I'm Sophie Antal Beg, head of portfolio and business consulting at Russell Investments. If you liked what you just saw and heard, consider subscribing to our YouTube channel or check us out on LinkedIn. Thanks for tuning in.

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