Andrew Pease

Chief Investment Strategist

An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.

Despite the tightest U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy since the early 2000s and a deeply inverted Treasury yield curve, the U.S. economy defied expectations with above-trend GDP growth, robust job creation, a 25% surge in the S&P 500 Index, and double-digit earnings growth.

2025 will be another year of overcoming challenges and redefining limits against a backdrop of high U.S. equity market valuations, mega-cap dominance, and the uncertainty surrounding the policy agenda of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Looking into 2025, we anticipate a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Our assumption is that the new administration will ease its more aggressive stances on tariffs and immigration. With these dynamics in mind, here are our key economic views for 2025:

1. U.S. Growth and Policy Trade-offs

   The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a trend-like pace of 2.0% in 2025 in response to the lagged impact of tight Fed monetary policy. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is projected to move closer to the Fed’s 2% target, while the central bank eases rates gradually, with the fed funds rate likely to reach 3.25% by year-end—aligning with its neutral level.

   The Trump administration’s policies present a delicate balancing act. Tax reforms and deregulation are likely to stimulate growth, particularly in domestic and cyclical sectors. Tariffs and immigration restrictions, however, could trigger a stagflationary shock that might have the Fed contemplating a rate hike as the economy weakens.

   Our working assumption is that the new administration will not aggressively pursue policies that create inflation risk. One clear message from the election is that U.S. voters were unhappy with the inflation of the Biden years. Tariffs and immigration controls are likely to be implemented, but their extent will be constrained by the inflation outlook. On balance, we see the policy mix as supportive for business confidence, which is likely to drive a resurgence in capital markets and provide positive tailwinds for private assets.
   

2. Global Headwinds and Policy Divergences

   Outside the U.S., growth will likely remain under pressure. Trade policy uncertainty and tariffs will weigh heavily on Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to cut its deposit rate to 1.5% by year-end to offset the tariff impact and the continued stagnation of the German economy.

   The UK faces sluggish productivity growth, labour constraints, and inflationary impacts from higher taxes under the new Labour government. The Bank of England’s (BoE) capacity to ease is constrained, with the base rate likely to decline only modestly to 3.75%–4.0%.

   Japan remains an outlier, supported by a virtuous wage-price spiral that will anchor inflation expectations near 2%, allowing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further normalisze policy. Rates could rise to a 30-year high of 0.75% by year-end.

   China faces headwinds from the property market collapse, deflation pressures, and U.S. tariffs. The policy response continues to be reactionary, rather than one where proactive steps are taken to solve structural problems such as high savings and low household consumption. There are downside risks to consensus expectations for 4.5% GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2025.
   

3. Market Sentiment and Valuations

   Three defining features of the market outlook for 2025 are the elevated level of the S&P 500 forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio at 22x, the potential for further U.S. dollar strength, and the direction of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.

   Elevated equity valuations make the U.S. market vulnerable to negative surprises, and further dollar strength will challenge emerging markets. Sustained U.S. Treasury yields above 4.5% could challenge equities, diminishing the earnings yield advantage stocks have enjoyed over bonds since 2002.
   

Portfolio Considerations for 2025

As we navigate 2025, the interplay between the shifting policy landscapes and evolving market conditions calls for thoughtful portfolio construction. Building on the macroeconomic backdrop—defined by resilience in U.S. growth, potential disruptions from trade and immigration policies, emerging opportunities in AI (artificial intelligence)-driven productivity and growth in private markets—three strategic themes guide our approach:

1. Balancing U.S. Growth Amid Policy Shifts

   The U.S. economy is resilient as it enters 2025, but the road ahead will be shaped by shifting policy dynamics. On the positive side, tax cuts and deregulation could provide a meaningful growth boost, particularly to domestic and cyclical sectors. Given lower valuations and improving sentiment, we are more positive on U.S. small cap equity than we have been in prior years. Large cap dominance in both earnings and price appreciation will require a catalyst to shift returns in the small cap direction. Potential deregulation and lower interest rates could be such a catalyst. We believe companies leveraging AI technologies to enhance productivity—especially in industrials and healthcare—could see material improvements to operating fundamentals.

   On the flip side, rising trade tensions and potential restrictions on immigration could disrupt labor markets and supply chains, creating risks to growth. This balancing act introduces greater volatility across markets, providing more opportunities for our active managers.

   We also expect more opportunities in the next 12 months to tactically calibrate total portfolio risks around a robust strategic asset allocation. For example, in July 2024, we reduced equity risk as our analysis indicated that markets were stretched, and investor sentiment was overly optimistic. When markets corrected in early August amid concerns about slowing U.S. growth, sentiment shifted, creating an opportunity to add risk back into portfolios. This disciplined approach serves as a model for navigating the dynamic market environment we anticipate in 2025.

What could potential U.S. policy changes mean for your portfolio?

2. Private Markets: The New Growth Engine

   Private markets continue to play an increasingly vital role in the evolving landscape of capital flows, as the shift away from public markets accelerates with fewer IPOs (initial public offerings) and later-stage listings. This transformation is particularly evident in AI opportunities, where venture capital investments now make up 27% of deals and 41% of capital raised.¹ In our view investors can benefit from broadening portfolios into private markets. The upcoming policy environment may also be more favourable for private markets, with stabilising interest rates, easing regulations, and rising M&A activity. However, the influx of capital into U.S. private markets has led to sourcing challenges, which makes international opportunities more attractive. In particular, Europe offers compelling middle-market consolidation opportunities in fragmented industries, Japan benefits from ongoing corporate reforms and asset divestitures, and the Persian Gulf states are emerging as dynamic investment hubs thanks to progressive regulations and large-scale development initiatives. Infrastructure also presents a key opportunity, as hybrid investment models that incorporate both private and public markets unlock substantial growth potential.

   We believe a multi-manager approach is crucial in this landscape. By diversifying across specialized managers, particularly in real assets, investors can access a broader range of opportunities that blend public and private market investments. This strategy creates more resilient portfolios and allows investments in sectors such as data centers and warehousing, where combining private and public market exposures is especially productive for a total portfolio.

3. The broadening out of Market Leadership

   While mega-cap AI stocks have driven market returns in recent years, leadership is shifting to companies using AI to create real-world efficiencies. The new U.S. administration’s focus on deregulation and tariff-based policies may provide an added boost to smaller, domestically oriented companies, which are less exposed to international trade disruptions than mega caps with significant foreign revenue, such as Apple.

   We see this shift reducing market concentration and opening the door for alpha opportunities. Active managers will likely play a critical role in identifying under-covered firms that are adopting AI to drive productivity and gain competitive advantages. As AI adoption accelerates, driven by falling costs, we expect companies leveraging these innovations to benefit from enhanced productivity and improved competitiveness. Additionally, with interest rates stabilising and valuations improving, real assets such as real estate and infrastructure are becoming increasingly attractive, offering growth, income stability, and inflation protection amid policy uncertainties.

Core inflation forecasts: Japan

It’s a cliché to say that uncertainty is high, but the return of Donald Trump to the White House adds an additional layer of complexity to the 2025 outlook. Alongside the usual business cycle risks, there is the unknown of how the new administration’s policy priorities and sequencing will unfold. We don’t know how aggressively President-elect Trump will implement his campaign promises of sweeping tariffs, lower immigration, and forced deportations. An early focus on tax cuts and deregulation would likely be well-received by equity investors. However, if the first major policy moves target tariffs and immigration, investor sentiment could sour.

On the business cycle, we expect the U.S. economy to slow to trend-like growth as the lagged effects of Fed tightening take hold. The risk remains that the economy could tip into a mild recession, with job market weakness triggering a consumer pullback. We’re closely monitoring jobless claims—sustained claims above 260,000 per week would signal a more painful adjustment. Claims below that level would suggest the economy is resilient despite tight monetary policy.

Key indicator: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims

The other scenarios we will be monitoring are U.S. inflation risks and potential positive surprises for Europe and China.

U.S. inflation risks could arise from economic overheating fueled by tax cuts and deregulation, which may sustain stronger-than-expected demand and limit the Fed’s ability to ease policy. Additionally, tariffs and immigration controls could tighten labor markets and disrupt supply chains, driving costs higher. If these pressures keep inflation elevated, the Fed might raise rates rather than ease, pushing U.S. Treasury yields above 4.5%. This would challenge the equity market, as the S&P 500’s earnings yield of 4.5% has consistently exceeded 10-year Treasury yields since 2002. A sustained reversal of this dynamic would strain equity valuations.

Despite a pessimistic consensus on Europe and China, both regions present potential for positive surprises. Europe’s equity valuations are compelling, with forward price-to-earnings multiples at a 45% discount to the U.S. Aggressive ECB easing could revive eurozone demand, with improving bank lending—a key indicator—signaling potential outperformance.

In China, policy shifts or improved corporate governance could deliver unexpected upside. Share buybacks have begun reversing years of dilution, enabling 11% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in the year to November 2024, despite a struggling economy. With a low forward multiple of 10 times, another year of double-digit EPS growth could drive outsized returns for the MSCI China Index.

Conclusion: Overcoming the improbable requires discipline and strategy

Markets in 2025 will demand more than conventional wisdom about U.S. outperformance and global headwinds. While our composite contrarian sentiment indicator signals investor optimism, it remains below critical correction thresholds. This creates a tactical opening for disciplined investors.

We believe success will require nimble allocation across public and private markets, backed by rigorous analysis and unwavering investment discipline. A projected U.S. soft landing, coupled with expected policy moderation on trade and immigration, opens specific opportunities for well-positioned portfolios.

Just as robot chopsticks can catch spacecraft in 2024, it’s plausible that markets can remain resilient through policy uncertainty in 2025. A disciplined approach to building total portfolios will be critical to investor outcomes.

Composite Contrarian Indicator