Debt-ceiling deal reached, vote to come

摘要：

民主党和共和党领导人达成协议，将美国债务上限延长至2025年1月1日
美国众议院和参议院议员可能会在未来几天内对该协议进行投票。我们认为，美国国会很有可能通过债务上限立法。
这笔交易可能意味着一场避免了危机，但在投票结果公布之前，它仍然值得投资者注意。

Executive summary:

Democratic and Republican party leaders reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025.
Members of the House of Representatives and Senate will likely vote on the deal in the coming days. We believe it’s much more likely than not that the debt-ceiling legislation will be passed by Congress
The deal likely represents a crisis averted, but until the votes are tabulated, it still warrants careful monitoring.

上周末，白宫和共和党众议院领导人达成美国债务上限协议，该法案文本于2023年5月28日公布。该协议将美国债务上限增加至31.4万亿美元，期限延长至2025年1月1日。它还使美国政府整体支出在2024年持平，并在2025年提高2%。除了这些主要数字外，该协议还提高了对接受政府援助的美国老年人的工作要求。它还包含适度增加军费开支的规定——2024年增至8,660亿美元，2025年增至8,950亿美元。

Over the weekend, the Biden White House and Republican House leaders reached a debt-ceiling deal, with text of the bill released on May 28. The agreement extends the debt ceiling to $31.4 trillion until Jan. 1, 2025. It also keeps overall government spending flat in 2024 and raises it 2% in 2025. In addition to these headline numbers, the agreement also expands work requirements for older Americans who receive government assistance. It also contains provisions to modestly increase military expenditures—to $866 billion in 2024 and $895 billion in 2025.

美国两党对这笔交易有何反应？

从表面上看，这笔交易引发了两党强硬派的批评。共和党强硬派对实际削减开支没有实现的事实做出了反应，并对接受政府援助人员的工作要求没有更加严格表示失望。在左翼，不出所料，强硬派批评了已经商定的工作要求，认为美国政府为了达成协议做出了过度的让步。
就政治现实而言，右翼反对派是更复杂的因素。拜登是总统，这带来了巨大的影响力和权力，其中最重要的是他是由美国人而不是国会选举产生的。因此，拜登几乎肯定可以获得足够的民主党选票来通过该法案。不满的民主党代表不能以“一个糟糕的协议”为由威胁要把他免职。众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡（Kevin McCarthy）就没有那么幸运了，因为他为赢得议长职位而达成的协议使他容易受到美国国会中任何个人代表的批评，他们甚至可以要求罢免他。

How are both parties reacting to the deal?

On the surface, the deal has spurred criticism from hardliners on both sides of the aisle. Republican hardliners are reacting to the fact that actual spending cuts were not achieved, and are also expressing disappointment that the work requirements are not more stringent. On the left, unsurprisingly, hardliners have criticized the work requirements that have been agreed to, feeling that the administration gave up more than needed to achieve a deal.

In terms of political reality, the opposition on the right is the much more complicating factor. Biden is the president and that comes with great influence and power, not the least of which is that he is elected by the people and not Congress. With this, Biden almost certainly can deliver enough Democratic votes to pass the bill. Dissatisfied Democratic representatives cannot threaten to remove him from office for striking a “bad deal.” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is not so lucky, as the deal he struck to win the speakership leaves him vulnerable to any individual representative being so dissatisfied that they can ask for his removal.

美国国会会批准该协议吗？

在未来的日子里，随着这一进程的发展，政治动态将非常重要。我们认为，美国国会很有可能通过债务上限立法。这是因为政治现实表明，大多数美国选民希望债务协议获得批准——并且会支持提高债务上限，而拜登政府几乎别无选择。
既然美国领导层已经达成协议，如果由于共和党内部的原因而未能通过这项立法，这可能会导致共和党人成为众矢之的。这些影响可能会很严重——以至于可能影响未来的美国总统选举。综上所述，我们认为该协议很可能会通过，但最终的问题是：麦卡锡议长能否在这个过程中”幸存”下来？

Will Congress ratify the deal?

In the days to come, the political dynamic will be important to watch as this process plays out. In the end, we believe that it is much more likely than not that the debt-ceiling legislation will be passed by the U.S. Congress. This is because political reality suggests that the majority of U.S. voters want a debt deal to be approved—and would have supported an increase in the debt ceiling with absolutely no concessions on the Biden administration’s part.

Now that the leadership has struck a deal, failure to pass this legislation due to the internal political process within the Republican party would likely result in Republicans being blamed for the repercussions.Those repercussions would likely be severe—so severe that failure in the year preceding a presidential election would make not passing a deal far too risky. With all that said, we believe passage of the deal is likely, but that the ultimate question might be: will Speaker McCarthy survive the process?

该协议的通过将如何影响美国经济？

最后，如果该协议以上述形式获得通过，这对美国经济——进而对拜登政府——应该是积极的，因为可以消除美国潜在的大规模财政紧缩和普遍不确定性的最坏情况。这两种潜在风险情况都会给已经有55%衰退概率的美国经济带来更大的衰退风险。我认为这是促使拜登最终做出所谓让步的原因。
虽然这笔交易的达成可能代表着避免了一场危机，但美国政治通常是多变的。我们将密切关注此过程，并告知您情况是否发生变化。即使该法案顺利通过，它仍不会改变我们对未来两年美国经济基本面的看法，即我们预计未来12-18个月美国经济的衰退概率保持在55%。

How would passage of the deal impact the U.S. economy?

In the end, if the deal is passed in the form described above, this should be a positive for the economy—and by extension, the Biden administration—in terms of taking the worst-case scenario of potential massive fiscal contraction and general uncertainty off the table. Either scenario would have posed a significant recession risk to an economy that already has a 55% probability of recession, in our view. I suspect that this is ultimately what motivated Biden to give the so-called concessions that he did.

While this deal likely represents a crisis averted, we are talking politics here and one never knows. We will monitor this process closely and let you know if this view changes. If the bill passes as is, it really won’t change our view on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy over the next two years. Our recession probability over the next 12-18 months remains at 55%.