Are recession risks increasing in the U.S.?
How economists look at recessionsRecession forecasting is hard—done correctly it is an exercise of evolving probabilities and risks, not bold proclamations of impending doom. In some ways the science of recession forecasting is similar to how geologists model the threat of an earthquake. Geologists look for areas of stress and imbalance in the Earth’s crust (i.e., fault lines). Economists look for evidence of macroeconomic imbalances. These imbalances come in a few different flavors— overinvestment (e.g. late 1990s), overborrowing (e.g. 2007), or an overheating labor market (e.g. late 1960s). We track imbalances as a medium-term risk indicator. They don’t tell us precisely when the next recession will hit—but they are very important in determining the danger zones to focus our attention on and when conditions are ripe for a downturn to occur.2 Geologists also use seismographs to measure shaking in the ground. Economists track the economy’s performance in real-time, looking for leading indicators that suggest a slowdown may be imminent or already underway.
The intersection of macro and marketsRecessions are damaging events for asset prices. They simultaneously act as a catalyst for valuation multiples to correct (as investors become more risk averse) and as a catalyst for corporate earnings to falter (as top-line growth slows). As such, recessions have been the driver of most of the bear markets3 in modern U.S. history. But it’s not good enough to simply know if we’re in a recession right now (hint: we’re not). Financial markets anticipate future movements in the real economy. Our analysis of business cycles in the post-World War II period shows that, on average, U.S. equities peaked roughly six months before the onset of the recession. In our view, this means that real-time monitoring efforts need to focus on leading indicators that give investors enough runway to get ahead of moves in asset prices.
So, where are we now?After nine years of uninterrupted economic growth, we’re getting late in the U.S. economic cycle. Some measures of macroeconomic imbalance are starting to flash amber or red. Corporate debt levels are worrisome, the labor market looks to be on the cusp of overheating and the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) is talking about moving to a restrictive policy stance “at some point”. That suggests to us that medium-term recession risks are elevated. But, to be clear, the ground isn’t shaking right now. High frequency activity indicators continue to suggest moderate, positive economic growth in the near-term. The table below shows a mosaic of the several indicators we track each month and the signal from them right now. our best forecast on the timing of the next U.S. recession is late 2019 or 2020. To amplify this point, let’s focus on the message we’re getting from the slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve right now (the first indicator in the table). Historically, an inverted yield curve—the difference between 10-year and 2-year bond yields—has been one of the single-best leading indicators of an impending downturn. Conceptually, the slope of the curve is a rough approximation of the stance of U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve controls the level of short-term interest rates. Markets determine the level of long-term interest rates based on underlying macro fundamentals. When the curve inverts, the bond market is sending a warning sign that the Fed has set short-term rates above what is justified by fundamentals (i.e., it has moved to a restrictive policy stance). The curve has been flattening recently and the current spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury note is only about 50 basis points. Because the curve hasn’t reached the inversion stage yet, we score this indicator as an amber risk. But, based on our macro forecasts and the recent flattening trend, it’s entirely possible that this spread could invert in late 2018 or early 2019. And given that curve inversion has historically predated recessions by nine to 18 months, we see late-cycle risks as becoming elevated around the latter half of 2019.
1 Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-01/as-u-s-expansion-hits-endurance-milestone-here-s-what-s-next
2 Similarly, a lack of major imbalances can give us confidence to stay invested during an early- or mid-cycle slowdown such as the U.S. experience with the European debt crisis of 2011-2012.
3 A bear market is commonly defined as a peak-to-trough selloff of 20% or more. Notable exceptions include the crash of 1987, 1966, and the selloff around the Bay of Pigs Invasion.