Economic Indicators Dashboard: What's the state of the economy?

To help you talk to your clients, we've identified a few key economic and market indicators to help assess the current economic health and trend.

Please note that this tool has moved to this new location. Please update any saved links or bookmarks.

As of: 8/09/2018
Updated daily to capture previous month-end values as they become available.
(Originally published: March 2, 2009. Indicators most recently revised June 19, 2014.)
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MOST RECENT
3-MO. TREND
TYPICAL RANGE
ACTUAL RANGE
FAQ

▼ MARKET INDICATORS

10.1362.64Typical13.15

+/- 1 standard deviation of historical Market Volatility ranged between 12.35 and 27.72.

As of 07/31/2018, within typical.

10 Yr. U.S. Treasury Yield

The average interest rate on the 10 year Treasury Note issued by the U.S. Government.

Historical details

Lowest recorded month-end value occured on 07/29/2016

Highest recorded month-end value occured on 09/30/1981

1.4615.84Typical2.96

+/- 1 standard deviation of historical 10 Yr. U.S. Treasury Yield ranged between 3.00 and 8.72.

As of 07/31/2018, trending toward typical.

-0.774.09Typical0.93

+/- 1 standard deviation of historical Yield Spread ranged between 0.74 and 2.94.

As of 07/31/2018, within typical.

-19.0117.12Typical6.51

+/- 1 standard deviation of historical Home Prices ranged between -4.93 and 13.34.

As of 05/31/2018, within typical.

▼ ECONOMIC INDICATORS

-10.0016.70Typical4.10

+/- 1 standard deviation of historical Economic Expansion ranged between -0.66 and 7.12.

As of 06/29/2018, within typical.

How do I read this chart?

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This dashboard is intended as a tool to set context and perspective when evaluating the current state of the economy.

For each indicator, the horizontal bar shows four things.

  • A blue color band represents the typical range for this indicator. +/- 1 standard deviation of historical values for the indicator fall in this range.

  • An orange marker shows the most recent value – the closer the marker is to the blue bar, the closer it is to historically typical conditions.

  • A grey area outside of the blue band which shows the range actual conditions.

  • An arrow shows the most recent three-month trend indicating if it is moving toward or away from the typical range.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the dashboard tell me?
  • The dashboard offers a snapshot of current U.S. economic and market conditions, based on key economic and market indicators. The dashboard contextualizes the current reading of each indicator by comparing them to their typical, historical ranges of month-end values.
Can I use the dashboard as a forecasting tool?
  • No. The dashboard is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of any economic or financial market. It is not intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance of any sort or serve as a market timing tool. Instead, the dashboard is intended to provide advisors with context and perspective about the current state of the economy.
What defines typical?
  • The dashboard definition of "typical range" is +/- 1 standard deviation* away from the mean of all historical month-end values, or 68% of historical values.1
  • The typical ranges are based on historical month-end data. Since each data point reports data at a different time, each typical range is calculated independently using data through the end of the previous month. Revised ranges are usually published during the first quarter of the year, whenever an indicator reports data for a new year, or whenever there are revisions to historical data.
How should I interpret the chart?
  • The charts show the relationship between the most recent values and their typical historical range.
  • Blue color band: represents the typical range (one standard deviation from the mean, i.e. 68% of all historical observations) Indicates more typical behavior for that indicator. If it lies outside, that points to extreme behavior.
  • Arrow: shows the most recent three-month trend.
  • A grey bar: shows the full range of historical values for each indicator. The lowest recorded value is shown on the left side of the bar and the highest recorded value on the right side of the bar.
  • Orange marker: represents the current reading.
Why are these indicators important?
  • In order to monitor the current health of the economy and its trend, we believe it's important to keep an eye on both the broad economy as well as key indicators in the market.
  • More information about each of these indicators is available by following the “historical details” links on the left side of the dashboard.
How often is the dashboard updated?
  • The dashboard shows the most recent month end values for each indicator. It is updated periodically to capture previous month-end or quarter-end values as they become available. Additionally any revisions to the historical data will be captured with each update.
  • Each indicator reports month-end data with the exception of GDP, which is reported quarterly.
  • While some of the indicators may be measured daily, we choose to include only the monthly/quarterly numbers, as they are better indicators of the overall economic trend.
  • With each update revisions to the historical data may occur.
How can I use the dashboard to talk to my clients?
  • You can use the dashboard to show your clients how the current market and economy, based on these indicators, compare to historically typical conditions and to show them which direction the market and economy seem to be moving.
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