Yield Spread

Monthly Values (%): January '82 - June '19
+/- 1 standard deviation of US Government Yield Spread (10 yr. - 3 mo.) figures fall into this range.
-1.0-'82'85'90'95'00'05'10'15'191.06Jan '821.03Feb '82.19Mar '82.72Apr '821.74May '821.08Jun '823.11Jul '824.09Aug '823.85Sep '822.54Oct '822.23Nov '822.16Dec '822.44Jan '832.06Feb '831.66Mar '831.89Apr '831.84May '831.81Jun '832.17Jul '832.34Aug '832.40Sep '832.91Oct '832.39Nov '832.49Dec '832.41Jan '842.55Feb '842.44Mar '842.72Apr '843.78May '843.53Jun '842.08Jul '841.73Aug '841.84Sep '842.44Oct '842.84Nov '843.43Dec '842.84Jan '853.10Feb '853.18Mar '853.29Apr '852.90May '853.20Jun '853.05Jul '852.90Aug '853.04Sep '852.59Oct '852.20Nov '851.72Dec '851.89Jan '86.89Feb '86.86Mar '861.10Apr '861.56May '861.22Jun '861.38Jul '861.64Aug '862.11Sep '862.00Oct '861.61Nov '861.40Dec '861.42Jan '871.59Feb '871.72Mar '872.51Apr '872.62May '872.47Jun '872.39Jul '872.55Aug '872.80Sep '873.43Oct '873.57Nov '872.97Dec '872.44Jan '882.36Feb '882.70Mar '882.71Apr '882.53May '882.05Jun '881.94Jul '881.71Aug '881.38Sep '881.03Oct '88.96Nov '88.77Dec '88.32Jan '89.29Feb '89.07Mar '89.31Apr '89-.32May '89-.16Jun '89-.22Jul '89.10Aug '89.13Sep '89-.12Oct '89.00Nov '89.13Dec '89.43Jan '90.47Feb '90.58Mar '90.97Apr '90.59May '90.43Jun '90.62Jul '901.23Aug '901.45Sep '901.31Oct '901.02Nov '901.45Dec '901.66Jan '911.80Feb '912.09Mar '912.34Apr '912.35May '912.53Jun '912.50Jul '912.33Aug '912.21Sep '912.51Oct '912.91Nov '912.75Dec '913.37Jan '923.24Feb '923.39Mar '923.82Apr '923.54May '923.49Jun '923.47Jul '923.39Aug '923.62Sep '923.77Oct '923.57Nov '923.55Dec '923.43Jan '933.02Feb '933.08Mar '933.08Apr '933.03May '932.70Jun '932.73Jul '932.37Aug '932.42Sep '932.33Oct '932.62Nov '932.76Dec '932.65Jan '942.68Feb '943.21Mar '943.09Apr '942.86May '943.08Jun '942.73Jul '942.51Aug '942.82Sep '942.61Oct '942.19Nov '942.16Dec '941.60Jan '951.28Feb '951.32Mar '951.20Apr '95.49May '95.61Jun '95.85Jul '95.83Aug '95.77Sep '95.55Oct '95.28Nov '95.48Dec '95.55Jan '961.11Feb '961.21Mar '961.52Apr '961.67May '961.55Jun '961.48Jul '961.67Aug '961.58Sep '961.20Oct '96.93Nov '961.22Dec '961.38Jan '971.34Feb '971.57Mar '971.44Apr '971.71May '971.26Jun '97.77Jul '971.10Aug '971.06Sep '97.63Oct '97.64Nov '97.39Dec '97.34Jan '98.30Feb '98.51Mar '98.68Apr '98.53May '98.34Jun '98.40Jul '98.09Aug '98.07Sep '98.31Oct '98.17Nov '98.17Dec '98.18Jan '99.63Feb '99.76Mar '99.81Apr '99.98May '991.03Jun '991.17Jul '991.00Aug '991.02Sep '99.90Oct '99.88Nov '991.12Dec '99.92Jan '00.64Feb '00.15Mar '00.41Apr '00.66May '00.15Jun '00-.23Jul '00-.58Aug '00-.43Sep '00-.61Oct '00-.73Nov '00-.77Dec '00.20Jan '01.07Feb '01.63Mar '011.40Apr '011.80May '011.77Jun '011.53Jul '011.48Aug '012.20Sep '012.25Oct '013.00Nov '013.33Dec '013.31Jan '023.09Feb '023.56Mar '023.34Apr '023.34May '023.16Jun '022.80Jul '022.45Aug '022.06Sep '022.49Oct '023.00Nov '022.61Dec '022.82Jan '032.51Feb '032.69Mar '032.76Apr '032.26May '032.64Jun '033.53Jul '033.47Aug '033.01Sep '033.37Oct '033.41Nov '033.32Dec '033.24Jan '043.03Feb '042.91Mar '043.55Apr '043.58May '043.29Jun '043.05Jul '042.54Aug '042.43Sep '042.14Oct '042.13Nov '042.02Dec '041.63Jan '051.60Feb '051.71Mar '051.31Apr '051.01May '05.81Jun '05.86Jul '05.50Aug '05.79Sep '05.59Oct '05.54Nov '05.31Dec '05.06Jan '06-.07Feb '06.23Mar '06.30Apr '06.26May '06.14Jun '06-.11Jul '06-.31Aug '06-.25Sep '06-.47Oct '06-.57Nov '06-.31Dec '06-.29Jan '07-.60Feb '07-.39Mar '07-.28Apr '07.17May '07.21Jun '07-.18Jul '07.53Aug '07.77Sep '07.54Oct '07.82Nov '07.68Dec '071.71Jan '081.68Feb '082.07Mar '082.34Apr '082.17May '082.09Jun '082.31Jul '082.11Aug '082.93Sep '083.55Oct '082.92Nov '082.14Dec '082.63Jan '092.76Feb '092.50Mar '093.02Apr '093.33May '093.34Jun '093.34Jul '093.25Aug '093.17Sep '093.36Oct '093.15Nov '093.79Dec '093.55Jan '103.48Feb '103.68Mar '103.53Apr '103.15May '102.79Jun '102.79Jul '102.33Aug '102.37Sep '102.51Oct '102.64Nov '103.18Dec '103.27Jan '113.27Feb '113.38Mar '113.28Apr '112.99May '113.15Jun '112.72Jul '112.21Aug '111.90Sep '112.16Oct '112.07Nov '111.87Dec '111.77Jan '121.90Feb '122.16Mar '121.85Apr '121.52May '121.58Jun '121.40Jul '121.48Aug '121.55Sep '121.61Oct '121.54Nov '121.73Dec '121.95Jan '131.78Feb '131.80Mar '131.65Apr '132.12May '132.48Jun '132.56Jul '132.75Aug '132.62Sep '132.53Oct '132.69Nov '132.97Dec '132.65Jan '142.61Feb '142.68Mar '142.64Apr '142.44May '142.49Jun '142.55Jul '142.32Aug '142.50Sep '142.34Oct '142.16Nov '142.13Dec '141.66Jan '151.98Feb '151.91Mar '152.04Apr '152.11May '152.34Jun '152.12Jul '152.13Aug '152.06Sep '152.08Oct '151.99Nov '152.11Dec '151.61Jan '161.41Feb '161.57Mar '161.61Apr '161.50May '161.23Jun '161.18Jul '161.25Aug '161.31Sep '161.50Oct '161.89Nov '161.94Dec '161.93Jan '171.83Feb '171.64Mar '171.49Apr '171.23May '171.28Jun '171.23Jul '171.11Aug '171.27Sep '171.23Oct '171.15Nov '171.01Dec '171.26Jan '181.22Feb '181.01Mar '181.08Apr '18.90May '18.92Jun '18.93Jul '18.75Aug '18.86Sep '18.81Oct '18.64Nov '18.24Dec '18.22Jan '19.28Feb '19.01Mar '19.08Apr '19-.21May '19-.11Jun '19-0.11

Data represent historical month end values

Frequently Asked Questions

What is it?

  • The spread between the yields of the 10 Year US Treasury Note and the 3 Month US Treasury Bill.

Why is it important?

  • The spread measures the market's outlook for future interest rates.

How do we interpret it?

  • An increase in the yield spread generally indicates that investors expect interest rates to increase. A decrease in the spread usually means the opposite.

Typical historical range

  • As of December 31, 2018, +/- 1 standard deviation* of historical month-end values have ranged from 0.71% to 2.91%.1

12 month trend

Site preferences