Market Returns During Recessions | Russell Investments

U.S. stock market returns during recessions

In this study, get the background, analysis and market timing of 31 recessions in the last 154 years: 1869-2022.

By Adam Field, FSA, EA By Evgenia Gvozdeva, Ph.D. By Eric Thaut, CFA, FRM

A study of 31 recessions in the last 150+ years: 1869-2022

Many investment strategists are forecasting that the U.S. economy could experience a recession in the next year or two. One of the main goals of this paper is to determine if stock market peaks and troughs coincide with peaks and troughs in the economy, as defined by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research).

In the paper you’ll find the background information on recessions with both negative and positive returns and a full analysis of market returns and rates over 150 years. Plus, see the impact of recessions on pension plan funded status.

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