Andrew Pease | Russell Investments
How might 2019 shape up across the investment landscape? Here’s our take on the key issues to pay attention to.
U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy’s budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) is settling into a quarterly tightening routine that could see the federal funds rate rise above 3%. Even so, the upside for the U.S. dollar looks limited given its expensive valuation and crowded long positions. We believe a pause in the dollar uptrend should bring respite to beleaguered emerging markets.
Global markets forecast for this quarter evaluates how the latest pause on U.S. markets growth and other factors are impacting Europe, Japan and emerging markets.