Russell Investments Insights

2018 Global Market Outlook
Running with the Bulls

The Outlook highlights the most recent economic insights and market expectations from the firm's global team of investment strategists.

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Market Insights


Happy Holidays: Fed wraps up 2017 with another rate hike

13/12/2017
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered another rate hike today, raising its target policy rate by 25 basis points to a new range of 1.25-1.50%.
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The eurozone: Mid-cycle renaissance

4/12/2017
The eurozone is in the middle of a mid-cycle renaissance, both economically and politically. Reflation combined with the refutation of populist movements in the region have laid the foundation for a self-sustaining recovery that could last for years to come. This environment should provide a strong tailwind to eurozone financial markets, which we continue to favor.
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Executive Summary

4/12/2017
Markets have turned optimistic, but it’s late in the cycle and central banks are becoming hawkish. The challenge ahead is to safely navigate between euphoria and danger.
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United States: Too much of a good thing?

4/12/2017
Global growth has lifted the U.S. economy and multinational earnings to their strongest position in years. But with an eight-year-old U.S. expansion, imbalances gradually building, and expensive market valuations, we believe some caution is warranted for U.S. equities. We forecast lackluster U.S. equity market returns in 2018 and view end-of-cycle risks as becoming elevated thereafter.
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Asia Pacific: Low rates, solid growth

4/12/2017
2017 was a strong year for the Asia-Pacific region, underpinned by solid global growth and Chinese demand. We expect the region’s economy to post another year of high growth in 2018, with good support from Australia and Japan, though with developing economies outpacing developed.
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Currencies: Don’t be tempted by yield

4/12/2017
Despite offering higher interest rates than most of their developed-market counterparts, the U.S. dollar (USD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD) were the two worst performers among Group of Ten (G10) currencies in 2017. We would not bet on a reversal of that trend. The story is different with emerging markets (EM) currencies, which are still appealing despite a tentative recovery this year.
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Russell monthly update

4/12/2017
Here is a summary of investment markets for the month of November 2017
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Turning the tide

29/11/2017
All the major central banks with the exception of the Bank of Japan will reduce their unconventional monetary measures (quantitative easing) in 2018. What impact will the withdrawal of QE have on fixed income markets?
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How much runway is left for the U.S. expansion?

29/11/2017
The U.S. expansion is over eight years old, and the S&P 500® Index is up almost 300 percent, cumulatively, from the bottom in 2009.1 This is the second longest bull market in modern history and the third longest economic expansion in records dating back to the 1800s. History would suggest that now is not the time to be complacent. After all, recessions almost always bring bear markets. And so, after such a strong and long run, it’s important for investors to take a step back and think about where we are in the cycle.
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Is a recession on the horizon?

22/11/2017
Andrew Pease, Global Head of Investment Strategy, recently presented his three potential market scenarios in our UK Annual Investment Summit this month. Here’s a summary.
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