VISION

2019 Global Market Outlook:
The late-late cycle show

U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy and Brexit imply 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. Our models indicate the U.S. recession danger zone is 2020, which gives equity markets some upside. But late-cycle risks are rising.

 

Features

Market Insights


Russell Investments quarterly update

21/01/2019
Here’s a summary of investment markets for the three months ending 31 December 2018
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Top 5 investment themes to watch for 2019

17/01/2019
How might 2019 shape up across the investment landscape? Here’s our take on the key issues to pay attention to.
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Excellent adventure or bogus journey? How the next recession may unfold

10/01/2019
Markets are struggling. Global growth is slowing. And as attention increasingly turns to the possibility of a recession, it's time to stop pondering when an economic slump will set in, and focus instead on what it may entail.
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Bah humbug: U.S. markets tumble to yearly lows after Fed guidance projects more rate hikes for 2019

19/12/2018
The Fed increased borrowing costs today for the fourth time this year. Could the central bank pause its quarterly rate-hiking cycle in 2019?
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To fear or not to fear the yield curve

11/12/2018
Does the U.S. Treasury yield curve always foretell a recession?
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Russell monthly update

6/12/2018
Here is a summary of investment markets for the month of November 2018.
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2019 Global Market Outlook: The late-late cycle show

5/12/2018
U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy’s budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.
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U.S.-China ceasefire: Reasonable outcome for markets, brief respite for economies

4/12/2018
At the 2018 G-20 Buenos Aires summit that concluded last weekend in Argentina, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose any new tariffs for three months to allow negotiations to continue at the technocrat level.
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Why ESG matters to investors and investing.

28/11/2018
Many investors still see environment, social and governance (ESG) factors as values-oriented.
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2018's biggest winners turned into the biggest losers this week

21/11/2018
The S&P 500® Index is down approximately 3% on the week and approximately 9.5% from its peak on September 20, essentially wiping out gains for the year. But the selloff is concentrated in a few mega-cap tech companies.
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