Strategist insights

Preparing for a low return, high volatility environment

Our strategists have consistently advised caution about the outlook for markets as valuations become increasingly extreme and vulnerable to correction.


Emerging markets: Tumbling, or just stumbling?

17/08/2018
Emerging markets comprise a scatterplot of disparate economies, drawn from every quarter of the globe, and exhibiting an extremely diverse range of shapes, sizes, political regimes, trade composition and financial circumstances.
Read article

Uncertain times for Italian politics: Questions and watch points

3/06/2018
The breakdown of Italy's proposed coalition government led to soaring Italian government bond yields and queries about what's next for the eurozone's third-largest economy. Today, Wouter Sturkenboom, Senior Investment Strategist, updates his views in light of recent developments.
Read article

It’s not just the tweets. Some things are different.

31/05/2018
This time is different.

Really.

I’m fully aware that the above phrase constitutes the four most dangerous words in our business. And, truth be told, on first glance, it may seem that today’s late-cycle bull market is no different from any others in recent history.
Read article

Should I stay or Should I go?

24/05/2018
The S&P 500® Index started the year with a bang, rising 5.6% for the largest January gain in 20 years1. An old market saying is: "So goes January, so goes the year." In the past 50 years, there have been nine other instances of January gains greater than 5%. In eight of those years, the calendar year gains averaged 26%2. The exception was 1987, and we all know what happened that year.
Read article

What’s behind the recent commodity rally?

2/05/2018
Commodities have been in a positive trend since mid-June of last year, when oil began moving higher from the low $40s1. After a period of consolidation in February and March, commodities have seen some strong price advances, particularly in energy and metals, so we felt that this was a good time to outline our thoughts about near-term and intermediate-term prices.
Read article

The bond market is waving a flag that we should pay attention to

19/04/2018
The current bull market in U.S. equities has been impressive on many fronts, and specifically with respect to its magnitude of returns and longevity.
Read article

Markets tumble as Trump announces sweeping tariffs on China

21/03/2018
Trump announcement on Chinese tariffs sparks market sell. What's next?
Read article

Why investors should be alert but not alarmed in 2018

19/03/2018
The biggest guessing game in global investing today is if – or perhaps when – the red-hot American equity market will stop soaring and start sliding. And what sort of damage will be wreaked if there is a sudden change in sentiment in the U.S. or further afield.
Read article

Five answers to help investors ride out market uncertainty

19/03/2018
Uncertainty and volatility are increasingly ruling the 2018 investment landscape. To help investors find the best way forward, we answer some of the most common questions being asked by investors, based on recent comments from its experts.*
Read article

U.S. Consumer Price Index rises sharply. Does this mean more Fed rate hikes are in store?

21/02/2018
The U.S. inflation data for February 2018 significantly exceeded consensus expectations, including ours—with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumping 0.5% in January. U.S. core inflation increased 0.349%, which was the highest reading since March 20051 —and the gains were broad-based across multiple categories. The stronger inflation news will likely help to cement a March rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) —which is something we and the markets already had conviction in.
Read article

What’s behind yesterday’s stock market sell-off?

7/02/2018
We believe Monday’s stock market pullback was likely driven by concerns over valuations, rather than fears of a recession. Here’s why.
Read article

Volatility strikes back. Is this the start of a bear market?

7/02/2018
After an exceptionally strong year in markets, volatility has struck back in recent days. At the time of this writing, the S&P 500® Index has fallen roughly 10% from its record close on Jan 26.1 The Australian equity market has seen falls of smaller magnitude, given it did not participate to the upside through most of 2017 and January of this year. Nevertheless, the age-old adage of the US sneezing remains, and sustained volatility in the US is likely to weigh on our domestic market. Many of our clients are asking us if this is the start of a bear market. Our answer—probably not. Bear markets are almost always caused by a decline in the real economy. That’s because it takes a recession to simultaneously damage both the valuations multiples AND earnings growth of businesses. And right now, this does NOT look like a recession scare to us. Instead, two distinct forces are conspiring against global equities.
Read article

Bitcoin - questioning the foundations

6/02/2018
Following the dramatic price movements experienced in the last 12 months, plenty of central bankers, and others, are now questioning the foundations of Bitcoin. Graham Harman, while regarding it as a speculative investment, examines the underpinnings of, and the outlook for, Bitcoin.
Read article

Where are we now? The cycle of market emotions

6/02/2018
When things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to them.
Read article
Site preferences